19 min read

Supplementary information (Continuous predictor)

2025-09-14

Experimental design

## [1] "Total shoot observations: 131510"
## [1] "Total years: 14"
## [1] "Total shoot trajectories: 11565"
## # A tibble: 4 × 4
##   site  variable   mean     sd
##   <chr> <chr>     <dbl>  <dbl>
## 1 cfc   mat        4.78   1.20
## 2 cfc   tap      912.   178.  
## 3 hwrc  mat        3.84   1.19
## 4 hwrc  tap      716.   107.

Treatments

target warming treatment

rainfall treatment

canopy

difference in
aboveground temperature

difference in
soil moisture

+1.7 °C

ambient

closed

1.68 ± 0.526

-0.00857 ± 0.0300

+3.4 °C

ambient

closed

3.42 ± 0.469

-0.0264 ± 0.0257

+1.7 °C

ambient

open

1.59 ± 0.383

-0.0212 ± 0.0219

+3.4 °C

ambient

open

3.12 ± 0.436

-0.0385 ± 0.0209

+1.7 °C

reduced

open

1.52 ± 0.505

-0.0186 ± 0.0147

+3.4 °C

reduced

open

3.08 ± 0.565

-0.0450 ± 0.0287

target warming treatment

difference in
aboveground temperature

difference in
soil moisture

+1.7 °C

1.62 ± 0.483

-0.0146 ± 0.0257

+3.4 °C

3.26 ± 0.506

-0.0340 ± 0.0261

Model results

Data snapshot

Conceptual

Modeled effects

(A) start of growth

species

closed canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
reduced rainfall

Picea mariana

-3.59
(-14.6, 7.39)

Picea glauca

0.160
(-6.16, 7.31)

-0.851
(-8.13, 7.25)

-4.67
(-12.8, 3.65)

Pinus banksiana

-2.54
(-11.0, 6.91)

-5.23
(-16.6, 6.63)

-2.16
(-13.9, 10.1)

Abies balsamea

-0.606
(-10.3, 9.94)

-2.74
(-13.1, 8.05)

-2.89
(-14.6, 8.81)

Pinus resinosa

-3.65
(-12.8, 6.38)

Pinus strobus

-7.15
(-16.1, 1.88)

-4.80
(-14.5, 5.66)

-3.11
(-12.7, 6.68)

Tsuga canadensis

-8.91
(-19.8, 2.22)

Populus tremuloides

-8.83
(-16.3, -1.71)

-5.59
(-14.5, 3.23)

-8.44
(-18.6, 1.38)

Betula papyrifera

-5.42
(-14.6, 3.60)

-3.75
(-14.6, 7.22)

-10.3
(-22.6, 1.87)

Betula alleghaniensis

0.202
(-10.8, 11.7)

Quercus macrocarpa

-4.32
(-8.51, 0.216)

-4.93
(-10.4, 0.677)

-3.92
(-9.37, 1.74)

Acer negundo

-0.420
(-8.76, 8.77)

Acer saccharum

-2.50
(-6.09, 1.17)

-3.54
(-9.44, 2.40)

-5.59
(-11.3, -0.0441)

Quercus rubra

-4.18
(-9.25, 1.03)

-8.78
(-14.2, -3.60)

-2.40
(-7.64, 2.88)

Tilia americana

-9.56
(-16.5, -2.70)

Acer rubrum

-3.18
(-8.79, 2.56)

-5.21
(-13.1, 2.97)

-1.21
(-10.1, 7.96)

Lonicera tatarica

-9.63
(-24.6, 6.51)

-3.86
(-20.9, 13.1)

Rhamnus cathartica

-6.40
(-15.3, 2.18)

-5.12
(-13.5, 3.52)

-8.67
(-16.7, -0.926)

Frangula alnus

-3.25
(-14.5, 8.92)

-6.50
(-21.0, 7.85)

Lonicera morrowii

-6.37
(-19.7, 6.05)

-6.95
(-19.2, 4.46)

(B) annual total growth

species

closed canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
reduced rainfall

Picea mariana

-11.5
(-28.2, 9.23)

Picea glauca

-15.8
(-31.6, 4.20)

-35.1
(-49.7, -16.2)

-24.9
(-40.4, -4.72)

Pinus banksiana

7.07
(-14.5, 33.7)

-10.1
(-29.7, 14.4)

-17.7
(-34.5, 3.14)

Abies balsamea

-26.5
(-41.9, -7.45)

-16.0
(-38.9, 16.2)

-23.3
(-43.2, 3.78)

Pinus resinosa

7.48
(-8.91, 27.2)

Pinus strobus

-13.7
(-29.8, 6.44)

-13.9
(-33.1, 10.8)

-22.8
(-39.9, -1.21)

Tsuga canadensis

11.7
(-11.1, 40.1)

Populus tremuloides

45.1
(6.16, 102)

10.1
(-25.1, 60.4)

-4.75
(-39.5, 50.5)

Betula papyrifera

16.6
(-19.4, 69.2)

50.5
(20.2, 89.6)

42.2
(-0.177, 104)

Betula alleghaniensis

-1.89
(-28.9, 34.0)

Quercus macrocarpa

13.9
(-6.89, 39.3)

3.31
(-17.7, 29.1)

17.0
(-7.88, 49.6)

Acer negundo

76.6
(42.6, 119)

Acer saccharum

56.2
(26.9, 91.0)

98.7
(46.4, 168)

77.3
(29.5, 142)

Quercus rubra

36.9
(5.61, 77.4)

14.9
(-16.2, 58.0)

19.3
(-13.4, 66.2)

Tilia americana

47.7
(16.5, 86.3)

Acer rubrum

5.22
(-20.4, 39.2)

19.1
(-11.7, 61.3)

38.5
(-6.78, 105)

Lonicera tatarica

-14.0
(-49.7, 47.5)

120
(25.9, 284)

Rhamnus cathartica

111
(19.8, 268)

74.0
(-0.477, 208)

37.4
(-20.6, 133)

Frangula alnus

2.95
(-38.8, 72.8)

-14.2
(-51.0, 50.8)

Lonicera morrowii

25.0
(-34.2, 132)

58.1
(-14.7, 202)

(C) duration of growth

species

closed canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
reduced rainfall

Picea mariana

-3.32
(-25.4, 18.0)

Picea glauca

-6.93
(-20.9, 5.07)

-7.05
(-23.1, 7.14)

0.530
(-16.0, 16.8)

Pinus banksiana

-4.99
(-23.0, 11.2)

0.508
(-23.0, 22.8)

-5.38
(-29.7, 17.5)

Abies balsamea

-3.43
(-24.2, 15.3)

-3.01
(-24.2, 17.2)

-1.53
(-24.8, 21.2)

Pinus resinosa

-6.55
(-26.7, 11.9)

Pinus strobus

2.58
(-15.3, 20.5)

-2.84
(-23.9, 16.4)

-6.87
(-26.0, 12.0)

Tsuga canadensis

3.90
(-18.4, 25.5)

Populus tremuloides

5.38
(-6.87, 18.5)

2.19
(-13.7, 18.6)

6.63
(-12.5, 26.5)

Betula papyrifera

3.96
(-12.5, 20.9)

1.21
(-20.7, 22.5)

6.38
(-17.3, 30.1)

Betula alleghaniensis

-11.6
(-34.3, 10.2)

Quercus macrocarpa

-0.0377
(-8.46, 7.72)

-0.457
(-11.6, 10.2)

-0.402
(-11.3, 9.95)

Acer negundo

-5.66
(-23.7, 10.8)

Acer saccharum

1.72
(-5.19, 8.48)

-0.0657
(-11.7, 11.3)

2.89
(-7.88, 13.8)

Quercus rubra

1.30
(-8.61, 10.5)

4.95
(-4.47, 15.1)

-0.242
(-10.1, 9.41)

Tilia americana

5.31
(-7.93, 19.0)

Acer rubrum

0.0230
(-10.8, 10.3)

2.23
(-14.0, 17.8)

-0.182
(-18.0, 16.8)

Lonicera tatarica

-0.241
(-30.1, 27.1)

3.68
(-29.2, 35.8)

Rhamnus cathartica

-1.49
(-10.6, 11.0)

0.385
(-15.8, 15.9)

0.629
(-14.0, 15.7)

Frangula alnus

-0.519
(-24.5, 21.8)

0.404
(-27.3, 28.4)

Lonicera morrowii

3.04
(-19.3, 26.8)

2.34
(-18.7, 25.7)

(D) relative growth rate

species

closed canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
reduced rainfall

Picea mariana

0.000822
(-0.0225, 0.0231)

Picea glauca

0.0194
(-0.0301, 0.0722)

0.00756
(-0.0447, 0.0607)

-0.0113
(-0.0579, 0.0330)

Pinus banksiana

0.0164
(-0.0301, 0.0638)

-0.00376
(-0.0439, 0.0369)

0.00443
(-0.0377, 0.0465)

Abies balsamea

-0.00311
(-0.0396, 0.0319)

0.000366
(-0.0399, 0.0404)

-0.00461
(-0.0435, 0.0333)

Pinus resinosa

0.00761
(-0.00990, 0.0257)

Pinus strobus

-0.0102
(-0.0533, 0.0294)

0.000850
(-0.0368, 0.0377)

0.00603
(-0.0341, 0.0461)

Tsuga canadensis

-0.00211
(-0.0282, 0.0222)

Populus tremuloides

-0.00815
(-0.0738, 0.0600)

-0.00683
(-0.0982, 0.0756)

-0.0245
(-0.105, 0.0405)

Betula papyrifera

-0.00484
(-0.0552, 0.0408)

0.00838
(-0.0292, 0.0441)

-0.000650
(-0.0382, 0.0349)

Betula alleghaniensis

0.00880
(-0.0101, 0.0280)

Quercus macrocarpa

0.00881
(-0.0601, 0.0775)

0.00455
(-0.0574, 0.0620)

0.0106
(-0.0553, 0.0754)

Acer negundo

0.0230
(0.00201, 0.0447)

Acer saccharum

0.0178
(-0.0307, 0.0675)

0.0336
(-0.0242, 0.0904)

0.0136
(-0.0477, 0.0775)

Quercus rubra

0.00936
(-0.0642, 0.0913)

-0.0366
(-0.120, 0.0488)

0.0143
(-0.0785, 0.115)

Tilia americana

0.00154
(-0.0314, 0.0332)

Acer rubrum

0.00293
(-0.0556, 0.0644)

-0.000815
(-0.0520, 0.0502)

0.0125
(-0.0380, 0.0633)

Lonicera tatarica

-0.00343
(-0.0686, 0.0550)

0.0144
(-0.0396, 0.0787)

Rhamnus cathartica

0.0750
(-0.0464, 0.271)

0.0270
(-0.0541, 0.128)

0.0138
(-0.0739, 0.120)

Frangula alnus

0.00252
(-0.0766, 0.0788)

-0.00528
(-0.0731, 0.0539)

Lonicera morrowii

-0.000906
(-0.0733, 0.0693)

0.0105
(-0.0602, 0.0903)

(A) start of growth

species type

effect size

evergreen gymnosperm tree

-3.11 (-8.30, -0.108)

deciduous angiosperm tree

-4.32 (-9.93, -0.109)

exotic shrub

-6.40 (-9.44, -3.37)

(B) annual total growth

species type

effect size

evergreen gymnosperm tree

-15.8 (-32.1, 10.2)

deciduous angiosperm tree

19.3 (-3.32, 88.0)

exotic shrub

37.4 (-14.2, 118)

(C) duration of growth

species type

effect size

evergreen gymnosperm tree

-3.32 (-7.01, 3.44)

deciduous angiosperm tree

1.30 (-8.62, 6.50)

exotic shrub

0.404 (-1.30, 3.55)

(D) relative growth rate

species type

effect size

evergreen gymnosperm tree

0.000822 (-0.0109, 0.0183)

deciduous angiosperm tree

0.00838 (-0.0306, 0.0283)

exotic shrub

0.0105 (-0.00491, 0.0654)

(A) start of growth

overall effect size

-4.32 (-9.62, 0.102)

(B) annual total growth

overall effect size

11.7 (-26.3, 110)

(C) duration of growth

overall effect size

0.0230 (-7.04, 6.28)

(D) relative growth rate

overall effect size

0.00443 (-0.0232, 0.0329)

(A) start of growth

term

estimate

intercept

-3.41 ± 1.40 (0.0202)

deciduous angiosperm tree

-1.89 ± 1.81 (0.3029)

exotic shrub

-2.69 ± 1.98 (0.1838)

closed canopy

-0.348 ± 1.76 (0.8440)

reduced rainfall

0.200 ± 1.98 (0.9203)

deciduous angiosperm tree:closed canopy

1.40 ± 2.30 (0.5456)

exotic shrub:closed canopy

0.0401 ± 3.59 (0.9912)

deciduous angiosperm tree:reduced rainfall

-0.208 ± 2.56 (0.9358)

exotic shrub:reduced rainfall

-0.599 ± 2.80 (0.8320)

(B) annual total growth

term

estimate

intercept

-0.216 ± 0.111 (0.0609)

deciduous angiosperm tree

0.472 ± 0.144 (0.0023)

exotic shrub

0.380 ± 0.158 (0.0213)

closed canopy

0.144 ± 0.140 (0.3079)

reduced rainfall

-0.0354 ± 0.158 (0.8237)

deciduous angiosperm tree:closed canopy

-0.133 ± 0.182 (0.4696)

exotic shrub:closed canopy

0.438 ± 0.286 (0.1338)

deciduous angiosperm tree:reduced rainfall

0.0350 ± 0.203 (0.8643)

exotic shrub:reduced rainfall

0.224 ± 0.223 (0.3212)

(C) duration of growth

term

estimate

intercept

-3.10 ± 1.88 (0.1074)

deciduous angiosperm tree

4.77 ± 2.42 (0.0565)

exotic shrub

3.76 ± 2.65 (0.1646)

closed canopy

0.422 ± 2.35 (0.8587)

reduced rainfall

-0.215 ± 2.65 (0.9360)

deciduous angiosperm tree:closed canopy

-2.05 ± 3.07 (0.5084)

exotic shrub:closed canopy

-2.58 ± 4.81 (0.5946)

deciduous angiosperm tree:reduced rainfall

1.05 ± 3.43 (0.7609)

exotic shrub:reduced rainfall

1.31 ± 3.75 (0.7286)

(D) relative growth rate

term

estimate

intercept

0.00125 ± 0.00665 (0.8515)

deciduous angiosperm tree

-0.000887 ± 0.00859 (0.9183)

exotic shrub

0.00504 ± 0.00941 (0.5951)

closed canopy

0.00285 ± 0.00834 (0.7344)

reduced rainfall

-0.00262 ± 0.00941 (0.7823)

deciduous angiosperm tree:closed canopy

0.00337 ± 0.0109 (0.7590)

exotic shrub:closed canopy

0.0658 ± 0.0171 (0.0005)

deciduous angiosperm tree:reduced rainfall

0.00656 ± 0.0121 (0.5925)

exotic shrub:reduced rainfall

0.00467 ± 0.0133 (0.7275)

## # A tibble: 11 × 4
## # Groups:   species [11]
##    scientific_name     species estimate p.value
##    <fct>               <fct>      <dbl>   <dbl>
##  1 Pinus banksiana     pinba     -3.61    0.206
##  2 Rhamnus cathartica  rhaca     -1.65    0.525
##  3 Pinus strobus       pinst     -1.45    0.419
##  4 Populus tremuloides poptr     -0.718   0.493
##  5 Picea glauca        picgl     -0.674   0.706
##  6 Abies balsamea      abiba     -0.423   0.626
##  7 Quercus rubra       queru      0.323   0.820
##  8 Quercus macrocarpa  quema      0.372   0.626
##  9 Acer saccharum      acesa      1.23    0.754
## 10 Acer rubrum         aceru      1.55    0.290
## 11 Betula papyrifera   betpa      1.84    0.690

Other parameters

Baseline in ambient plots

(A) start of growth

species

closed canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
reduced rainfall

Picea mariana

123
(110, 133)

Picea glauca

128
(120, 135)

126
(118, 133)

127
(119, 134)

Pinus banksiana

117
(106, 125)

108
(96.4, 117)

107
(94.9, 117)

Abies balsamea

124
(113, 133)

129
(118, 138)

129
(118, 138)

Pinus resinosa

112
(102, 119)

Pinus strobus

122
(113, 130)

116
(105, 124)

120
(111, 128)

Tsuga canadensis

124
(113, 134)

Populus tremuloides

133
(126, 139)

135
(125, 142)

133
(122, 140)

Betula papyrifera

138
(129, 145)

125
(115, 133)

130
(119, 139)

Betula alleghaniensis

124
(113, 133)

Quercus macrocarpa

127
(121, 133)

128
(122, 133)

129
(123, 134)

Acer negundo

107
(98.1, 115)

Acer saccharum

130
(124, 136)

126
(120, 132)

129
(123, 133)

Quercus rubra

126
(120, 131)

134
(129, 138)

132
(126, 136)

Tilia americana

124
(118, 130)

Acer rubrum

130
(123, 137)

128
(120, 134)

125
(116, 132)

Lonicera tatarica

113
(91.5, 126)

111
(86.1, 125)

Rhamnus cathartica

137
(128, 143)

134
(121, 143)

138
(128, 143)

Frangula alnus

135
(117, 145)

132
(112, 144)

Lonicera morrowii

118
(101, 129)

123
(107, 133)

(B) annual total growth

species

closed canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
reduced rainfall

Picea mariana

35.7
(23.1, 56.8)

Picea glauca

33.8
(24.0, 47.1)

119
(94.1, 153)

93.6
(73.0, 120)

Pinus banksiana

150
(117, 197)

360
(275, 461)

383
(307, 469)

Abies balsamea

39.2
(28.5, 55.6)

79.2
(57.9, 110)

74.5
(54.7, 101)

Pinus resinosa

95.2
(65.1, 136)

Pinus strobus

140
(83.6, 227)

165
(108, 258)

175
(123, 240)

Tsuga canadensis

68.4
(38.3, 121)

Populus tremuloides

29.5
(21.1, 41.8)

135
(87.4, 209)

110
(64.4, 187)

Betula papyrifera

76.3
(50.2, 121)

206
(158, 269)

147
(105, 207)

Betula alleghaniensis

72.9
(46.0, 116)

Quercus macrocarpa

41.0
(29.1, 59.7)

85.6
(63.8, 118)

78.1
(56.0, 110)

Acer negundo

38.4
(31.2, 48.0)

Acer saccharum

48.5
(36.3, 66.9)

83.1
(56.6, 123)

77.8
(55.4, 111)

Quercus rubra

45.7
(31.9, 66.5)

134
(103, 177)

115
(81.9, 161)

Tilia americana

51.5
(39.4, 67.9)

Acer rubrum

38.8
(30.8, 50.4)

121
(86.6, 168)

77.9
(51.0, 120)

Lonicera tatarica

64.7
(42.0, 100)

46.1
(29.1, 73.3)

Rhamnus cathartica

47.9
(30.2, 80.5)

44.0
(24.1, 77.6)

57.3
(32.9, 98.4)

Frangula alnus

113
(72.8, 178)

115
(63.2, 204)

Lonicera morrowii

42.6
(25.5, 71.2)

36.8
(21.3, 62.1)

(C) duration of growth

species

closed canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
reduced rainfall

Picea mariana

69.3
(50.8, 93.2)

Picea glauca

35.1
(24.4, 49.6)

42.1
(30.7, 57.5)

41.5
(30.6, 56.4)

Pinus banksiana

44.8
(31.7, 63.9)

56.8
(41.4, 78.1)

60.8
(43.9, 84.3)

Abies balsamea

49.4
(34.8, 69.8)

50.3
(35.5, 70.8)

53.4
(38.0, 74.6)

Pinus resinosa

67.1
(52.4, 85.9)

Pinus strobus

45.2
(32.9, 61.5)

51.8
(37.7, 71.4)

51.6
(38.1, 69.2)

Tsuga canadensis

72.3
(54.3, 94.7)

Populus tremuloides

23.3
(16.6, 37.0)

29.3
(18.1, 48.5)

33.8
(20.3, 55.1)

Betula papyrifera

37.2
(25.5, 53.9)

57.0
(41.8, 77.2)

56.6
(40.8, 77.8)

Betula alleghaniensis

74.6
(57.2, 96.4)

Quercus macrocarpa

22.9
(17.1, 31.9)

30.6
(22.4, 42.5)

28.6
(20.8, 40.0)

Acer negundo

55.3
(42.0, 72.0)

Acer saccharum

21.2
(16.7, 27.6)

30.1
(21.9, 40.9)

26.3
(19.3, 35.7)

Quercus rubra

22.6
(16.8, 32.6)

21.2
(16.5, 29.9)

22.2
(16.6, 32.0)

Tilia americana

39.3
(30.2, 51.3)

Acer rubrum

23.8
(17.1, 35.2)

38.4
(27.6, 53.1)

39.8
(27.5, 57.2)

Lonicera tatarica

48.7
(25.7, 89.7)

51.4
(26.1, 102)

Rhamnus cathartica

19.1
(16.1, 32.3)

27.0
(16.9, 50.5)

24.4
(16.5, 44.3)

Frangula alnus

38.3
(20.8, 73.8)

47.0
(25.3, 86.8)

Lonicera morrowii

38.6
(21.2, 71.1)

35.4
(19.0, 67.7)

(D) relative growth rate

species

closed canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
ambient rainfall

open canopy,
reduced rainfall

Picea mariana

0.0693
(0.0497, 0.0969)

Picea glauca

0.114
(0.0794, 0.166)

0.126
(0.0923, 0.175)

0.120
(0.0883, 0.165)

Pinus banksiana

0.110
(0.0779, 0.156)

0.102
(0.0740, 0.140)

0.0998
(0.0720, 0.138)

Abies balsamea

0.0877
(0.0609, 0.125)

0.0921
(0.0647, 0.131)

0.0890
(0.0631, 0.125)

Pinus resinosa

0.0544
(0.0410, 0.0727)

Pinus strobus

0.109
(0.0763, 0.153)

0.0907
(0.0638, 0.128)

0.0955
(0.0694, 0.131)

Tsuga canadensis

0.0833
(0.0619, 0.115)

Populus tremuloides

0.146
(0.0914, 0.211)

0.167
(0.100, 0.271)

0.142
(0.0851, 0.237)

Betula papyrifera

0.110
(0.0734, 0.163)

0.0931
(0.0682, 0.127)

0.0876
(0.0629, 0.123)

Betula alleghaniensis

0.0513
(0.0375, 0.0697)

Quercus macrocarpa

0.191
(0.135, 0.261)

0.163
(0.117, 0.224)

0.168
(0.119, 0.232)

Acer negundo

0.0529
(0.0397, 0.0708)

Acer saccharum

0.144
(0.108, 0.189)

0.130
(0.0926, 0.183)

0.147
(0.105, 0.205)

Quercus rubra

0.184
(0.126, 0.252)

0.234
(0.166, 0.305)

0.218
(0.150, 0.295)

Tilia americana

0.0970
(0.0735, 0.128)

Acer rubrum

0.135
(0.0915, 0.191)

0.125
(0.0894, 0.174)

0.103
(0.0700, 0.153)

Lonicera tatarica

0.102
(0.0553, 0.196)

0.0847
(0.0431, 0.166)

Rhamnus cathartica

0.210
(0.124, 0.275)

0.137
(0.0716, 0.230)

0.162
(0.0864, 0.253)

Frangula alnus

0.125
(0.0651, 0.234)

0.105
(0.0551, 0.200)

Lonicera morrowii

0.119
(0.0634, 0.216)

0.111
(0.0563, 0.210)

Implications

Growth rank

Duration vs speed

Trait

Correlation

(A) start of growth

lifestyle predictor

intercept

lifestyle effect

context effect

interaction

biome

-4.28 ± 0.696
(< 0.0001)

-0.687 ± 0.867
(0.4324)

-1.08 ± 0.839
(0.2044)

0.979 ± 1.04
(0.3541)

northern range limit

-4.75 ± 0.405
(< 0.0001)

0.526 ± 0.412
(0.2088)

-0.414 ± 0.488
(0.4013)

-0.648 ± 0.491
(0.1944)

southern range limit

-4.81 ± 0.411
(< 0.0001)

0.505 ± 0.416
(0.2311)

-0.318 ± 0.496
(0.5249)

-0.672 ± 0.503
(0.1888)

range center

-4.79 ± 0.403
(< 0.0001)

0.594 ± 0.407
(0.1520)

-0.337 ± 0.486
(0.4922)

-0.777 ± 0.495
(0.1239)

temperature niche

-4.73 ± 0.414
(< 0.0001)

-0.142 ± 0.426
(0.7408)

-0.446 ± 0.499
(0.3767)

0.606 ± 0.501
(0.2331)

precipitation niche

-4.71 ± 0.417
(< 0.0001)

0.413 ± 0.420
(0.3313)

-0.428 ± 0.502
(0.3985)

0.367 ± 0.512
(0.4779)

origin

-6.25 ± 1.01
(< 0.0001)

1.92 ± 1.12
(0.0932)

-0.164 ± 1.36
(0.9050)

-0.0737 ± 1.47
(0.9601)

leaf habit

-5.29 ± 0.489
(< 0.0001)

1.83 ± 0.862
(0.0403)

-0.660 ± 0.598
(0.2767)

0.939 ± 1.02
(0.3639)

shoot growth type

-4.30 ± 0.519
(< 0.0001)

-1.18 ± 0.849
(0.1726)

-0.0998 ± 0.630
(0.8748)

-0.992 ± 1.02
(0.3356)

shade tolerance index

-4.71 ± 0.403
(< 0.0001)

0.877 ± 0.412
(0.0393)

-0.361 ± 0.486
(0.4609)

0.127 ± 0.488
(0.7964)

drought tolerance index

-4.73 ± 0.424
(< 0.0001)

-0.100 ± 0.430
(0.8172)

-0.440 ± 0.510
(0.3938)

0.0740 ± 0.514
(0.8863)

specific leaf area

-4.71 ± 0.411
(< 0.0001)

-0.642 ± 0.432
(0.1445)

-0.432 ± 0.495
(0.3881)

-0.501 ± 0.499
(0.3213)

leaf C

-4.51 ± 0.437
(< 0.0001)

0.812 ± 0.444
(0.0776)

-0.380 ± 0.535
(0.4833)

0.291 ± 0.544
(0.5969)

leaf N

-4.51 ± 0.405
(< 0.0001)

-1.23 ± 0.412
(0.0058)

-0.380 ± 0.496
(0.4499)

0.144 ± 0.504
(0.7771)

leaf C/N

-4.51 ± 0.388
(< 0.0001)

1.38 ± 0.394
(0.0015)

-0.380 ± 0.475
(0.4296)

-0.255 ± 0.482
(0.6005)

net photosynthetic rate

-4.72 ± 0.407
(< 0.0001)

-0.764 ± 0.416
(0.0735)

-0.424 ± 0.490
(0.3920)

-0.175 ± 0.493
(0.7239)

stomatal conductance

-4.70 ± 0.381
(< 0.0001)

-1.22 ± 0.385
(0.0029)

-0.301 ± 0.459
(0.5155)

-0.221 ± 0.465
(0.6373)

Vcmax

-4.73 ± 0.420
(< 0.0001)

-0.361 ± 0.427
(0.4035)

-0.443 ± 0.505
(0.3855)

-0.0268 ± 0.508
(0.9582)

(B) annual total growth

lifestyle predictor

intercept

lifestyle effect

context effect

interaction

biome

-0.0437 ± 0.0712
(0.5428)

0.271 ± 0.0888
(0.0039)

-0.0435 ± 0.0859
(0.6154)

0.0524 ± 0.107
(0.6272)

northern range limit

0.129 ± 0.0425
(0.0042)

-0.129 ± 0.0432
(0.0047)

-0.0160 ± 0.0512
(0.7558)

-0.0591 ± 0.0515
(0.2576)

southern range limit

0.122 ± 0.0422
(0.0063)

-0.137 ± 0.0427
(0.0025)

-0.0334 ± 0.0510
(0.5152)

-0.0600 ± 0.0516
(0.2520)

range center

0.125 ± 0.0415
(0.0046)

-0.142 ± 0.0419
(0.0015)

-0.0281 ± 0.0501
(0.5777)

-0.0561 ± 0.0509
(0.2775)

temperature niche

0.131 ± 0.0408
(0.0026)

0.154 ± 0.0420
(0.0007)

-0.0117 ± 0.0492
(0.8127)

0.0206 ± 0.0494
(0.6791)

precipitation niche

0.132 ± 0.0469
(0.0076)

0.0299 ± 0.0473
(0.5307)

-0.00857 ± 0.0566
(0.8802)

0.0124 ± 0.0577
(0.8308)

origin

0.335 ± 0.111
(0.0044)

-0.255 ± 0.122
(0.0438)

-0.0684 ± 0.149
(0.6495)

0.0341 ± 0.161
(0.8333)

leaf habit

0.276 ± 0.0413
(< 0.0001)

-0.453 ± 0.0728
(< 0.0001)

-0.0103 ± 0.0505
(0.8389)

-0.0838 ± 0.0864
(0.3380)

shoot growth type

0.0685 ± 0.0569
(0.2355)

0.162 ± 0.0931
(0.0892)

0.0287 ± 0.0691
(0.6795)

-0.0895 ± 0.112
(0.4271)

shade tolerance index

0.133 ± 0.0469
(0.0069)

-0.0196 ± 0.0480
(0.6845)

-0.0133 ± 0.0565
(0.8150)

0.0352 ± 0.0568
(0.5389)

drought tolerance index

0.130 ± 0.0468
(0.0083)

0.0358 ± 0.0476
(0.4563)

-0.0126 ± 0.0564
(0.8250)

0.0212 ± 0.0569
(0.7115)

specific leaf area

0.130 ± 0.0373
(0.0012)

0.193 ± 0.0392
(< 0.0001)

-0.0165 ± 0.0449
(0.7152)

0.0418 ± 0.0453
(0.3606)

leaf C

0.113 ± 0.0428
(0.0131)

-0.192 ± 0.0435
(0.0001)

-0.0366 ± 0.0524
(0.4903)

0.0412 ± 0.0532
(0.4452)

leaf N

0.113 ± 0.0537
(0.0441)

0.0786 ± 0.0546
(0.1603)

-0.0366 ± 0.0658
(0.5822)

-0.0133 ± 0.0668
(0.8438)

leaf C/N

0.113 ± 0.0519
(0.0374)

-0.109 ± 0.0527
(0.0481)

-0.0366 ± 0.0635
(0.5688)

0.0239 ± 0.0645
(0.7138)

net photosynthetic rate

0.132 ± 0.0469
(0.0075)

-0.0160 ± 0.0479
(0.7397)

-0.0101 ± 0.0565
(0.8590)

-0.0367 ± 0.0567
(0.5209)

stomatal conductance

0.132 ± 0.0462
(0.0067)

0.0653 ± 0.0467
(0.1699)

-0.0191 ± 0.0557
(0.7331)

-0.0158 ± 0.0564
(0.7806)

Vcmax

0.132 ± 0.0453
(0.0059)

-0.0766 ± 0.0462
(0.1046)

-0.00936 ± 0.0546
(0.8647)

-0.0543 ± 0.0549
(0.3286)

(C) duration of growth

lifestyle predictor

intercept

lifestyle effect

context effect

interaction

biome

-0.466 ± 1.02
(0.6496)

0.449 ± 1.27
(0.7252)

1.41 ± 1.23
(0.2577)

-0.774 ± 1.53
(0.6154)

northern range limit

-0.160 ± 0.595
(0.7897)

-0.698 ± 0.606
(0.2556)

0.867 ± 0.717
(0.2340)

0.537 ± 0.722
(0.4615)

southern range limit

-0.107 ± 0.571
(0.8529)

-1.38 ± 0.577
(0.0216)

0.611 ± 0.689
(0.3803)

0.680 ± 0.699
(0.3359)

range center

-0.117 ± 0.577
(0.8407)

-1.20 ± 0.582
(0.0464)

0.714 ± 0.696
(0.3107)

0.751 ± 0.708
(0.2947)

temperature niche

-0.171 ± 0.574
(0.7668)

1.04 ± 0.590
(0.0844)

0.897 ± 0.691
(0.2017)

-0.779 ± 0.694
(0.2680)

precipitation niche

-0.214 ± 0.601
(0.7237)

-0.0677 ± 0.606
(0.9116)

0.920 ± 0.724
(0.2112)

-0.875 ± 0.738
(0.2427)

origin

0.430 ± 1.51
(0.7773)

-0.840 ± 1.66
(0.6154)

1.45 ± 2.03
(0.4776)

-0.772 ± 2.18
(0.7254)

leaf habit

1.13 ± 0.646
(0.0890)

-4.15 ± 1.14
(0.0008)

1.16 ± 0.791
(0.1499)

-1.49 ± 1.35
(0.2780)

shoot growth type

-0.859 ± 0.745
(0.2558)

1.89 ± 1.22
(0.1299)

0.448 ± 0.905
(0.6232)

1.33 ± 1.46
(0.3671)

shade tolerance index

-0.187 ± 0.602
(0.7573)

-0.738 ± 0.616
(0.2377)

0.835 ± 0.726
(0.2563)

-0.0969 ± 0.729
(0.8948)

drought tolerance index

-0.180 ± 0.604
(0.7666)

-0.592 ± 0.613
(0.3395)

0.956 ± 0.728
(0.1960)

0.157 ± 0.733
(0.8312)

specific leaf area

-0.200 ± 0.562
(0.7232)

1.55 ± 0.591
(0.0120)

0.865 ± 0.677
(0.2088)

0.949 ± 0.683
(0.1720)

leaf C

-0.0432 ± 0.656
(0.9479)

-0.396 ± 0.666
(0.5570)

0.199 ± 0.803
(0.8064)

-0.212 ± 0.816
(0.7969)

leaf N

-0.0432 ± 0.571
(0.9402)

1.81 ± 0.580
(0.0041)

0.199 ± 0.699
(0.7785)

-0.182 ± 0.710
(0.7997)

leaf C/N

-0.0432 ± 0.561
(0.9391)

-1.89 ± 0.570
(0.0025)

0.199 ± 0.687
(0.7746)

0.338 ± 0.698
(0.6320)

net photosynthetic rate

-0.184 ± 0.602
(0.7609)

0.652 ± 0.615
(0.2950)

0.889 ± 0.725
(0.2270)

0.319 ± 0.728
(0.6632)

stomatal conductance

-0.224 ± 0.584
(0.7029)

1.19 ± 0.590
(0.0513)

0.774 ± 0.704
(0.2779)

0.458 ± 0.712
(0.5236)

Vcmax

-0.175 ± 0.610
(0.7752)

0.141 ± 0.621
(0.8222)

0.907 ± 0.735
(0.2243)

-0.0348 ± 0.739
(0.9627)

(D) relative growth rate

lifestyle predictor

intercept

lifestyle effect

context effect

interaction

biome

-0.000985 ± 0.00399
(0.8060)

0.00982 ± 0.00497
(0.0548)

-0.00529 ± 0.00481
(0.2780)

0.00357 ± 0.00599
(0.5545)

northern range limit

0.00522 ± 0.00242
(0.0374)

-0.00304 ± 0.00247
(0.2245)

-0.00312 ± 0.00292
(0.2926)

-0.00331 ± 0.00294
(0.2670)

southern range limit

0.00497 ± 0.00248
(0.0516)

-0.00227 ± 0.00251
(0.3702)

-0.00331 ± 0.00299
(0.2759)

-0.00263 ± 0.00303
(0.3910)

range center

0.00503 ± 0.00245
(0.0464)

-0.00268 ± 0.00247
(0.2836)

-0.00327 ± 0.00295
(0.2748)

-0.00305 ± 0.00300
(0.3157)

temperature niche

0.00532 ± 0.00244
(0.0349)

0.00303 ± 0.00251
(0.2343)

-0.00303 ± 0.00294
(0.3086)

0.00269 ± 0.00295
(0.3676)

precipitation niche

0.00551 ± 0.00244
(0.0295)

0.000913 ± 0.00246
(0.7130)

-0.00302 ± 0.00295
(0.3120)

0.00392 ± 0.00300
(0.1988)

origin

0.0220 ± 0.00545
(0.0002)

-0.0191 ± 0.00599
(0.0027)

-0.0215 ± 0.00731
(0.0053)

0.0196 ± 0.00787
(0.0170)

leaf habit

0.00736 ± 0.00299
(0.0182)

-0.00603 ± 0.00528
(0.2608)

-0.00375 ± 0.00367
(0.3124)

0.00101 ± 0.00627
(0.8732)

shoot growth type

0.00458 ± 0.00310
(0.1472)

0.00167 ± 0.00507
(0.7434)

-0.000307 ± 0.00376
(0.9353)

-0.00688 ± 0.00608
(0.2642)

shade tolerance index

0.00551 ± 0.00248
(0.0319)

0.00131 ± 0.00254
(0.6094)

-0.00294 ± 0.00299
(0.3316)

0.00237 ± 0.00300
(0.4343)

drought tolerance index

0.00538 ± 0.00239
(0.0300)

0.00447 ± 0.00243
(0.0730)

-0.00336 ± 0.00288
(0.2496)

-0.00123 ± 0.00290
(0.6733)

specific leaf area

0.00533 ± 0.00247
(0.0369)

0.00236 ± 0.00260
(0.3679)

-0.00308 ± 0.00298
(0.3059)

0.000181 ± 0.00300
(0.9523)

leaf C

0.00581 ± 0.00238
(0.0209)

-0.0113 ± 0.00242
(< 0.0001)

-0.00405 ± 0.00291
(0.1747)

0.00702 ± 0.00296
(0.0245)

leaf N

0.00581 ± 0.00326
(0.0855)

-0.00321 ± 0.00331
(0.3407)

-0.00405 ± 0.00400
(0.3188)

0.00117 ± 0.00406
(0.7748)

leaf C/N

0.00581 ± 0.00330
(0.0891)

0.00186 ± 0.00335
(0.5832)

-0.00405 ± 0.00404
(0.3244)

-0.000476 ± 0.00411
(0.9086)

net photosynthetic rate

0.00539 ± 0.00244
(0.0328)

-0.00318 ± 0.00249
(0.2098)

-0.00292 ± 0.00294
(0.3272)

-0.00206 ± 0.00295
(0.4905)

stomatal conductance

0.00559 ± 0.00248
(0.0295)

-0.000504 ± 0.00251
(0.8414)

-0.00304 ± 0.00299
(0.3145)

-0.00297 ± 0.00302
(0.3325)

Vcmax

0.00536 ± 0.00241
(0.0318)

-0.00415 ± 0.00245
(0.0982)

-0.00295 ± 0.00290
(0.3157)

-0.00153 ± 0.00292
(0.6024)

NLS

## [1] "Number of outliers removed for start: 9"

## [1] "Number of outliers removed for total growth: 4"

## [1] "Number of outliers removed for duration: 14"

## [1] "Number of outliers removed for speed: 39"

Coefficients

1.7 °C vs. 3.4 °C

## Linear mixed model fit by REML. t-tests use Satterthwaite's method [
## lmerModLmerTest]
## Formula: diff ~ heat + model + (1 | species)
##    Data: df_2trt
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 7774.8
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -4.8707 -0.5137  0.0334  0.5389  6.9770 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  species  (Intercept) 0.01437  0.1199  
##  Residual             0.49955  0.7068  
## Number of obs: 3604, groups:  species, 20
## 
## Fixed effects:
##               Estimate Std. Error         df t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept)  6.168e-02  3.241e-02  2.556e+01   1.903   0.0683 .
## heat++      -8.189e-04  2.358e-02  3.584e+03  -0.035   0.9723  
## model       -1.669e-02  1.653e-02  1.747e+03  -1.010   0.3127  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##        (Intr) heat++
## heat++ -0.354       
## model   0.115  0.015

Year-by-year effects

## Linear mixed model fit by REML. t-tests use Satterthwaite's method [
## lmerModLmerTest]
## Formula: diff ~ year + model + (1 | species)
##    Data: df_yrs
## 
## REML criterion at convergence: 7778
## 
## Scaled residuals: 
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -4.8739 -0.5111  0.0306  0.5375  6.9780 
## 
## Random effects:
##  Groups   Name        Variance Std.Dev.
##  species  (Intercept) 0.0147   0.1212  
##  Residual             0.4994   0.7067  
## Number of obs: 3604, groups:  species, 20
## 
## Fixed effects:
##               Estimate Std. Error         df t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) -4.945e+00  8.137e+00  2.345e+03  -0.608    0.543
## year         2.481e-03  4.032e-03  2.344e+03   0.615    0.538
## model       -1.439e-02  1.693e-02  1.261e+03  -0.850    0.395
## 
## Correlation of Fixed Effects:
##       (Intr) year  
## year  -1.000       
## model -0.213  0.214